Interest Rates and AI Innovation

Key Takeaway

The key takeaway is that interest rates may rise due to increased investment and innovation opportunities created by advancements in AI and other technologies, leading to higher economic productivity and growth. However, the trajectory of interest rates remains uncertain.


  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman questions what will happen to interest rates given the acceleration of ideas and innovation, presenting a scenario of being willing to borrow at higher rates to fund data centers and reap benefits of powerful AI.

  • Altman hints that when capitalists have more and better ideas than ever, interest rates may rise rather than fall to zero as in the past, reflecting higher expected returns.

  • Respondents agree rates could go higher with higher real returns, weeding out mediocre ideas and re-allocating talent and capital to fuel innovation.

  • Interest rates fundamentally reflect supply and demand dynamics in capital markets. They were near zero after the financial crisis but have risen steadily with Fed policy normalization.

  • However, AI and other technological innovations may boost productivity enough to drive rapid economic growth and counter expectations of high inflation.

  • The potential take-private deal for AI software provider FiscalNote underscores M&A interest in tech sectors enabling efficiency gains. However, PE dealmaking faces issues like antitrust concerns.

  • Upcoming changes to EV tax credits to spur domestic sourcing of battery minerals could benefit companies like Foremost Lithium positioning as North American suppliers. But policy uncertainties remain.


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